‘The figures for 2030 show which share of today’s world production of the specific raw material will be required for these [emerging] technologies in 2030. The latter is an indicator of the demand for expanding mining capacity. The indicator has a factor of 6 for gallium and of 3.8 for neodymium.

This means, the demand emanating from foreseeable technical innovations for these two raw materials in 2030, will be 6 and 3.8 higher, respectively, than the total amount produced in the world today. These figures do not include the raw materials demand from application segments outside the analysed technologies here.

Demand drivers for gallium are thin-layer photovoltaics and high-speed integrated circuits. Demand drivers for neodymium are high performance permanent magnets.

The indicator has a factor 3.3 for indium, 2.4 for germanium, 2.3 for scandium, 1.6 for platinum and 1 for tantalum. It is still 0.8 for silver and tin, respectively 0.4 for cobalt, 0.3 for palladium and titanium and 0.2 for copper.’

From: Angerer, Gerhard et. al. (2009) Raw materials for emerging technologies. The influence of sector specific feedstock demand on future raw materials consumption in material-intensive emerging technologies (Final report – Abridged). Commissioned by the German Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology. Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research, Institute for Futures Studies and Technology Assessment.